山东省卫生总费用核算与预测

于风华; 孟庆跃; 王健; 谢波峰; 邱枫林; 孙经杰

引用本文：于风华,孟庆跃,王健,等.山东省卫生总费用核算与预测[J].中国卫生政策研究,2011,4(11):47-52

山东省卫生总费用核算与预测

投稿时间：2011-06-10 修订日期：2011-08-16 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览

1.山东大学卫生管理与政策研究中心;2.中国人民大学财政金融学院;3.山东省卫生厅;4.山东省卫生统计信息中心

摘要:目的：对山东省卫生总费用进行核算与预测，为建立卫生筹资策略和机制提供依据。方法：资料主要来源于1998—2009年山东省卫生财务、卫生统计和社会经济统计资料。运用筹资来源法对山东省卫生筹资进行系统测算，并开展国内外比较研究；运用指数平滑法，预测山东省卫生总费用未来发展趋势。结果：(1)1998—2009年，山东省卫生总费用从195.71亿元增加到1 163.20亿元，人均卫生总费用从221.44元增加到1 228.26元，卫生总费用占GDP的比例从2.79%增加到3.43%；(2)1998—2009年，按照国内口径，政府卫生支出和社会卫生支出占卫生总费用的比重分别从15.67%和28.93%增加到21.84%和36.85%，个人卫生支出比重从55.40%降低到41.31%；按照国际口径，广义政府卫生支出占卫生总费用的比重从36.95%增加到45.62%，私人卫生支出比重从63.05%降低到54.38%；(3)2015年和2020年，预测卫生总费用占GDP的比重分别达到4.01%和4.25%，个人卫生支出占卫生总费用比重分别降低至37.02%和35.47%。结论：(1)山东省卫生筹资水平较低；(2)山东省卫生筹资构成向着好的方向变化，但卫生筹资构成仍不合理，公共筹资不足、个人筹资较高。建议：努力筹集足够的卫生资金，提高卫生总费用占GDP的比重；加大政府卫生投入，降低个人筹资比例。

关键词:卫生总费用卫生筹资核算预测

基金项目:山东省自然科学基金（ZR2009HM028）

Estimating and forecasting Total Health Expenditure in Shandong Province

Abstract:Objectives: This paper focuses on the estimation and forecast of Shandong provincial total health expenditure (THE) in order for policy making to establish suitable health financing strategies and mechanisms. Methods: Data were collected from Shandong Statistical Yearbook, Shandong Health Statistics Annals Reports, and Shandong Health Financial Annual Reports from 1998 to 2009. Different analytical methods were applied to estimate and compare the THE from different sources. This paper forecasted the future trend of THE using exponential smoothing method. Results: （1）The THE increased from 19.571 billion RMB in 1998 to 116.32 billion RMB in 2009. The THE per capita increased from 221.44 RMB to 1228.26 RMB for the same time period. The THE as a percentage of GDP increased from 2.79% to 3.43%. （2） According to domestic statistical standards, the proportion of government expenditure in THE increased from 15.67% in 1998 to 21.84% in 2009; The proportion of social expenditure increased from 28.93% to 36.85%; the proportion of out of pocket expenditure decreased from 55.04% to 41.31%. According to international statistical standards, the proportion of general government expenditure over THE increased from 36.95% to 45.62%; the proportion of private health expenditure decreased from 63.05% to 54.38%.（3）By 2015 and 2020, the proportion of THE as a percentage of GDP will increase to 4.01% and 4.25% respectively, the proportion of out of pocket expenditure over THE will decrease to 37.02% and 35.47% respectively. Conclusions：（1）The level of health financing in Shandong is low.（2）Although the health financing in Shandong is changing to a more reasonable composition, it still shows an inappropriate composition, insufficient public financing, and relative high out of pocket expenditure. Recommendations: To increase the proportion of THE over GDP, further increase proportion of public financing in THE, and reduce proportion of individual out of pocket expenditure.

Key words:Total Health Expenditure Health financing Estimating Forecasting

摘要点击次数: 3980 全文下载次数: 3407