| 引用本文：卫琛.非洲人口的“马尔萨斯陷阱”与国际援助下的计划生育运动[J].中国卫生政策研究,2013,6(11):15-22 |
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| 非洲人口的“马尔萨斯陷阱”与国际援助下的计划生育运动 |
| 投稿时间：2013-09-17 修订日期：2013-09-25 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 卫琛 |
| 北京大学国际关系学院 北京 100871 |
| 摘要:本文探讨撒哈拉以南的非洲在国际援助背景下的国家计划生育政策，及其控制人口的绩效和成功条件。首先从横向国别和纵向历史两个角度，利用统计数据和回归分析，验证人口增长对经济发展的抑制作用，此抑制作用在非洲尤其显著，人口增长率每上升1个百分点，GDP增长率降低0.3个百分点，因此有必要主动采取政策抑制非洲人口的过快增长。然后结合中国计划生育政策及国际援助计划生育运动的历史，说明国际援助在计划生育起始阶段的关键性带动作用，催生了20世纪“生育革命”，受援的发展中国家避孕普及率上升至60%，总和生育率下降到3。但因非洲国家计生政策尚未建立有效机制，而在20世纪90年代后国际计生运动持续低潮，导致非洲的计生运动青黄不接、避孕措施供不应求，同时面临初期绩效不明显等问题。借鉴发展中国家的既有经验，广泛开展中非计生领域的合作，仍然潜力巨大。 |
| 关键词:计划生育 国际援助 非洲 人口 |
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| A study on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Malthusian trap and international family planning movement |
| WEI Chen |
| School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
| Abstract:Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, this research is to investigate the national family planning policy in the context of international aid, and its performance of population control and its success criteria. Firstly, from the perspectives of national and historical research, by using statistical data and regression analysis, the author expounds that the rapid population growth in Africa inhibits the growth of GDP per capita, and consequently 1 percent increase of population growth rate will cause 0.3 percent decrease of GDP growth rate. The second and third part analyze the policy history among developing countries, especially those in China and Sub-Saharan Africa, to indicated the recent problems which are facing Africa's family planning movement, including the lack of foreign aids and manage structure, huge gap between unmet need for family planning and its supply, and not obvious performance in short term. However, sharing common experience of development, China and Africa have great potential for cooperation of family planning. |
| Key words:Family planning Foreign aid Africa Population |
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