| 引用本文：吕俊兴, 徐天琛, Y Andrew, 吕英义.政策调整下儿科医生的数量预测及分析[J].中国卫生政策研究,2017,10(1):34-40 |
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| 政策调整下儿科医生的数量预测及分析 |
| 投稿时间：2016-10-17 修订日期：2016-12-08 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 吕俊兴1, 徐天琛2, YAndrew3, 吕英义4 |
1. 苏州大学医学部 江苏苏州 215000;
2. 苏州大学数学科学学院 江苏苏州 215000;
3. 加州大学洛杉矶分校 美国洛杉矶 90001;
4. 青岛大学附属海慈医院 山东青岛 266000 |
| 摘要:近年来，儿科医生缺乏问题逐渐突出，成为社会舆论及研究的焦点之一，尤其在“全面二孩”政策放开，医患关系难见缓和的大背景下，该问题呈日趋严峻之势。本文利用Leslie人口预测模型及GM（1，1）模型等数学理论，预测并评估了在“全面二孩”背景下，恢复与扩充儿科专业招生这一政策对儿科医生数量，以及每千名儿童配备儿科医生数量的影响。本文绘制了新儿科医生培养政策下全国各地区儿科医务人员培养能力图，并以此说明儿科医师培养资源存在严重地域不均衡性，将严重影响到儿科医生培养政策的实施及效果。在进行各方面综合分析后，本文在新政策的基础上提出了增强教育资源薄弱地区儿科医学专业建设力度，继续提高儿科医务人员收入及福利水平与加快构建和谐医患关系等建议，以求加快缓解儿科医生短缺问题。 |
| 关键词:儿科医生 预测 "全面二孩"政策 GM (1,1)模型 |
| 基金项目:苏州大学第十八批科研基金重点项目（KY2016047A） |
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| Prediction and analysis of the number of pediatricians under policy adjustment |
| LV Jun-xing1, XU Tian-chen2, Y Andrew3, LV Ying-yi4 |
1. Medical College of SoochowUniversity, Suzhou Jiangsu 215000, China;
2. School of MathematicalSciences, Soochow University, Suzhou Jiangsu 215000, China;
3. University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles 90001, USA;
4. Affiliated Haici Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao Shandong 266000, China |
| Abstract:Recently, the shortage of pediatricians has been gradually drawing much attention from public opinion and researches, especially in the context of the liberalization of the policy of "Universal two-child", and the increasing difficulty of relieving the relationship between doctors and patients. This paper used the Leslie population prediction model and GM(1,1) model to predict and estimate the effects of the policy of "Universal two-child" on the number of pediatricians per 1000 children. This paper presents the organizational structure of the training capacities of new pediatricians in various regions of the country, indicating that there is a serious regional disparity in pediatrician training resources. This imbalance is an adverse factor which would seriously affect the pediatric training policies' implementation and effect. After a comprehensive analysis of the new policy, this paper presents some proposals which are dedicated to strengthen the construction of pediatric medical specialty in the weak areas of educational resources, accelerate the improvement of the level of income and welfare to be owned by pediatric medical personnel, and to speed up the harmonious doctor-patient relationship building, all this done as targeted to alleviate the shortage of pediatricians. |
| Key words:Pediatrician Prediction Universal two-child policy GM(1,1) model |
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