| 引用本文：焦嫚, 王欢.城镇职工基本医疗保险基金收支预测——以江苏省为例[J].中国卫生政策研究,2018,11(11):16-21 |
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| 城镇职工基本医疗保险基金收支预测——以江苏省为例 |
| 投稿时间：2018-01-30 修订日期：2018-05-21 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 焦嫚1, 王欢2 |
1. 河海大学理学院 江苏南京 211100;
2. 河海大学公共管理学院 江苏南京 211100 |
| 摘要:医疗保障关系到国计民生，医疗保险基金平衡则是医疗保障事业健康稳定发展的经济基础。本研究利用等维递补灰色预测模型，对江苏省苏南H市、苏中I市和苏北J市的城镇职工基本医疗保险基金收支情况进行预测。结果表明，江苏省不同地区的城镇职工基本医疗保险基金运行情况存在差异；三个城市医保基金均存在风险，H市、I市和J市分别于2024年、2022年和2018年出现基金缺口。本研究以期为江苏省医疗保险基金改革提供参考。 |
| 关键词:城镇职工 医疗保险基金 收支平衡 等维递补灰色预测 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学基金青年基金项目（17YJC840037） |
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| Prediction on the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance Scheme funds: A case study of Jiangsu province |
| JIAO Man1, WANG Huan2 |
1. School of Science, Hohai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 211100, China;
2. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 211100, China |
| Abstract:A country's medical insurance is highly related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. The balance of medical insurance fund is the economic basis for the healthy and stable development of the medical insurance industry. By using the equal dimension recursive grey prediction model, this paper predicts the income and expenditure of the urban employee basic medical insurance scheme funds in the southern city H, central city I and northern city J of Jiangsu province. The results show that there are differences in the operation of urban employee basic medical insurance scheme funds in different areas of Jiangsu province. There are risks in urban medical insurance funds of the three areas, and fund gaps occur in H city, I city and J city in 2024, 2022 and 2018, respectively. Thus, this paper provides the theoretical basis as reference for the reform of the medical insurance fund in Jiangsu province. |
| Key words:Urban employees Medical insurance fund Balance between income and outcome Equal dimension recursive grey prediction model |
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