| 引用本文：崔军, 佘欣艺.人口老龄化对财政可持续性的非线性影响——基于卫生资源的门槛效应研究[J].中国卫生政策研究,2023,16(3):45-53 |
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| 人口老龄化对财政可持续性的非线性影响——基于卫生资源的门槛效应研究 |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-20 修订日期：2023-03-06 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 崔军, 佘欣艺 |
| 中国人民大学公共管理学院 北京 100872 |
| 摘要:利用2009—2019年我国31个省份的面板数据，运用双重面板固定效应模型、系统GMM模型和面板门槛效应模型，实证考察了人口老龄化对财政可持续性的影响，以及在不同卫生资源水平下的潜在非线性影响。研究发现：(1)人口老龄化对财政可持续性具有显著削弱效应；(2)人口老龄化对财政可持续性的削弱效应呈现非线性特征，卫生资源水平低于第一门槛值时该削弱效应相对较弱，高于第二门槛值时该削弱效应显著增强；(3)对2019年数据进一步分析发现，各省份卫生资源水平存在较大差异， 其中19个省份的资源水平相对充裕，致使人口老龄化对财政可持续性的负面影响不容小觑，而7个省份的资源水平在财政可承受范围内仍有一定提升空间。基于此，提出以下建议：一方面建立与积极老龄化相协调的财政制度体系，另一方面实施对卫生资源充裕省份提质增效、对卫生资源较少省份加大投入的针对性措施，从而构建可持续的医疗卫生服务制度。 |
| 关键词:人口老龄化 财政可持续性 卫生资源 面板门槛效应模型 |
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| Non-linear effects of population ageing on fiscal sustainability： The research of threshold effects based on health resources |
| CUI Jun, SHE Xin-yi |
| School of Public Administration Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China |
| Abstract:Using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2009—2019, using two-way fixed effect model, systematic GMM model and a panel threshold model, the impact of population ageing on fiscal sustainability and the potential non-linear impact under different levels of health resources are empirically investigated. The study finds that: (1) population ageing has a significant weakening effect on fiscal sustainability; (2) the weakening effct of population ageing on fiscal sustainability is non-linear, with the weakening effect relatively weak when the level of health resources is below the first threshold and significantly stronger when it is above the second threshold; (3) further analysis of the data of each province in 2019 reveals that there are significant differences in the level of health resources between provinces, among which the resource level of 19 provinces is relatively adequate, resulting in the negative impact of population ageing on fiscal sustainability not being underestimated, while the resource level of 7 provinces still has some room for improvement within fiscal sustainability. In view of this, the following suggestions are put forward: on the one hand, establish a fiscal system that is compatible with active ageing. On the other hand, implement targeted measures to improve quality and efficiency in provinces with abundant health resources, and increase input in provinces with a lower supply of health resources, so as to build a sustainable medical and health care system. |
| Key words:Population ageing Fiscal sustainability Health resources Panel threshold effect model |
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