| 引用本文：刘明珠, 路云, 薛天祺.基于间断时间序列的国家药品集中带量采购协议期满品种接续工作实施效果研究——以河北省为例[J].中国卫生政策研究,2023,16(5):23-28 |
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| 基于间断时间序列的国家药品集中带量采购协议期满品种接续工作实施效果研究——以河北省为例 |
| 投稿时间：2023-01-05 修订日期：2023-05-10 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 刘明珠, 路云, 薛天祺 |
| 中国药科大学医疗保障政策研究中心 江苏南京 211198 |
| 摘要:目的：为完善国家组织药品集中带量采购协议期满后的接续工作提出建议。方法：筛选2020年11月—2022年9月河北省国采第三批中采购期为一年的品种及相关可替代品种的采购数据，采用描述性统计和间断时间序列的方法，分析药品采购量、采购金额和日均费用三个指标的变化情况。结果：接续政策实施后，中选产品三个指标均下降，且变化不显著；未中选产品采购量、采购金额持续增加，日均费用持续下降；集采品种三个指标也呈不显著下降趋势；可替代品种短期内日均费用显著上涨，其采购量、采购金额无显著变化。建议：各地以稳定为核心科学制定接续规则，合理设定价格基线及区间，促进药品价格回归合理水平，同时加强可替代品种量价监测，逐步扩大集采品种。 |
| 关键词:药品集中带量采购 接续政策 间断时间序列模型 实施效果 |
| 基金项目:国家医疗保障局课题“国家组织集采药品和医用耗材国际价格收集分析”(JCS-ZCHT-2022-003) |
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| Research on the implementation effect of succeeding work after expiration of national pharmaceutical centralized volume-based procurement agreement based on interrupted time series: A case study of Hebei province |
| LIU Ming-zhu, LU Yun, XUE Tian-qi |
| Health Care Policy Research Center, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing Jiangsu 211198, China |
| Abstract:Objective: To make suggestions for improving the succession of drugs after the expiration of state-organized drug centralized procurement agreement in China. Methods: The purchasing data of the third batch of nationally collected drugs with a contract period of one year and varieties with substitutable relationship from November 2020 to September 2022 in Hebei Province are screened. In this study, descriptive statistics and interrupted time-series methods were used to analyze three indicators, namely the changes of drug purchasing volume, expenditure, and Defined Daily Drug cost (DDDc). Result: After the implementation of the continuation policy, all three indicators of selected products have decreased, but the changes are not significant. The purchase quantity and amount of money spent on unselected products continue to increase, while the daily cost continues to decrease. The three indicators of collectively procured products also show a non-significant downward trend. The daily cost of substitute products has significantly increased in the short term, but their purchase quantity and cost have not changed significantly. Conclusion: It is recommended that each region scientifically formulate continuation rules with stability as the core consideration, set reasonable price baselines and intervals, promote the return of drug prices to a reasonable level, strengthen the monitoring of the quantity and price of substitute products, and gradually expand the variety of collectively procured products. |
| Key words:National pharmaceutical centralized volume-based procurement Continuation policy Interrupted time series model Implementation effects |
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