| 引用本文：张诗文, 荆丽梅, 张小雨, 王丽丽, 范怿, 金慧鑫, 唐友阳.可持续发展视角下上海市长期照护资源与人口和经济发展的耦合协调研究[J].中国卫生政策研究,2024,17(12):30-36 |
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| 可持续发展视角下上海市长期照护资源与人口和经济发展的耦合协调研究 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-07 修订日期：2024-10-15 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 张诗文1, 荆丽梅2, 张小雨1, 王丽丽1, 范怿1, 金慧鑫2, 唐友阳2 |
1. 上海中医药大学公共卫生学院 上海 201203;
2. 上海交通大学公共卫生学院 上海 200025 |
| 摘要:目的：探讨上海市长期照护资源与人口和经济发展的耦合协调关系，为优化长期照护资源配置和系统协调发展提供依据。方法：基于耦合协调理论，构建长期照护资源、经济发展和人口结构评价体系，分析2019—2021年各子系统的综合评价指数(U值)，并结合耦合度(C值)和耦合协调度(D值)评估系统间的协调性。结果：2019年，人口结构(U3=0.344)领先，长期照护资源(U1=0.160)和经济发展(U2=0.240)滞后，系统协调性较差(D=0.486)。2020年，长期照护资源(U1=0.593)提升，超越经济(U2=0.175)和人口(U3=0.318)，系统协调性有所改善(D=0.566)。2021年，经济发展(U2=0.890)领先，长期照护资源(U1=0.653)和人口结构(U3=0.574)相对滞后，但系统协调性显著提高(D=0.833)。结论：2019—2021年，上海市长期照护资源与人口和经济发展三个子系统总体发展较好且呈现动态变化特征，子系统间耦合性较强但协调性仍有不足。未来应加强系统的动态、协同调整和持续监测，优化政策和资源配置，推动长期照护与人口和经济资源的协调可持续发展。 |
| 关键词:长期照护资源 经济发展 人口结构 耦合协调 可持续发展 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BRK020);老年长期照护教育部重点实验室开放基金培育项目(LNZDPY-2023-02)；国家卫生健康委统计信息中心“全国卫生服务调查专题研究”委托课题 |
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| Study on the coupling and coordination of long-term care resources with population and economic development in Shanghai from the perspective of sustainable development |
| ZHANG Shi-wen1, JING Li-mei2, ZHANG Xiao-yu1, WANG Li-li1, FAN Yi1, JIN Hui-xin2, TANG You-yang2 |
1. School of Public Health of Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 201203, China;
2. School of Public Health of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200025, China |
| Abstract:Objective: To explore the coupling and coordination relationship between long-term care resources and population and economic development in Shanghai, and to provide a basis for optimizing the allocation of long-term care resources and the coordinated development of the system. Methods: Based on the coupling coordination theory, the evaluation system of long-term care resources, economic development and population structure was constructed, and the comprehensive evaluation index (U value) of each subsystem was analyzed from 2019 to 2021, and the coordination of the system was evaluated by combining the coupling degree (C value) and coupling coordination degree (D value). Results: In 2019, population structure (U3=0.344) led, long-term care resources (U1=0.160) and economic development (U2=0.240) lagged, and system coordination was poor (D=0.486). In 2020, long-term care resources (U1=0.593) increased, outpacing economy (U2=0.175) and population (U3=0.318), and system coordination improved (D=0.566). In 2021, economic development (U2=0.890) leads, long-term care resources (U1=0.653) and population structure (U3=0.574) lag behind, but system coordination is significantly improved (D=0.833). Conclusion: From 2019 to 2021, the overall development of the three subsystems of long-term care resources, population and economic development in Shanghai was good and showed dynamic changes, with strong coupling among the subsystems but insufficient coordination. In the future, we should strengthen the dynamic, coordinated adjustment and continuous monitoring of the system, optimize policies and resource allocation, and promote the coordinated and sustainable development of long-term care and population and economic resources. |
| Key words:Long-term care resources Economic development Population structure Coupling coordination Sustainable development |
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