| 引用本文：张航空,徐慧敏,罗叶圣.中国老年人口的失能水平与特征基于多数据来源的评估与预测[J].中国卫生政策研究,2025,18(8):1-9 |
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| 中国老年人口的失能水平与特征基于多数据来源的评估与预测 |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-03 修订日期：2025-08-10 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 张航空1,2，徐慧敏3，罗叶圣3 |
| 1.中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 北京 100872;2.中国人民大学健康中国研究院 北京 100872;3.中国人民大学人口与健康学院 北京 100872 |
| 摘要:目的 准确认识我国老年人口的失能水平和特征，为精准回应我国老年人口的照料服务需求提供参考。方法 基于2011—2023年间CLHLS、CHARLS、CALSS三项全国性涉老抽样调查的多期数据，对我国老年人口的失能水平和失能特征进行评估、对比、预测。结果 现有调查数据间的直接估计结果可信度较低。多数据来源综合预测数据表明，2025—2050年我国65岁及以上老年人口失能率在12.27%~15.05%区间内呈分阶段整体上升趋势，失能人口规模在2 590万~5 864万间持续增长。洗澡、上厕所、穿衣是失能率相对最高的3项活动。讨论与建议：未来应着力完善老年人能力评估制度建设，补齐高质量失能数据短板；在相关研究中注重老年人口分项失能状况评估；把握好失能水平变化阶段性特征，抓准应对机遇窗口期；依据老年人口分项失能特征找准养老服务、设施、产品供给重心。 |
| 关键词:老年人 ADL 失能 抽样调查 |
| 基金项目:湖南省自然科学基金青年项目（2024JJ6441） |
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| The disability levels and characteristics of the elderly population in China： Assessment and prediction based on Multiple Data Sources |
| ZHANG Hang-kong1,2, XU Hui-min3, LUO Ye-sheng3 |
| 1.Population Development Studies Center， Renmin University of China， Beijing 100872， China;2.China Institute of Health， Renmin University of China， Beijing 100872， China;3.School of Population and Health， Renmin University of China， Beijing 100872， China |
| Abstract:Objective Accurately grasping the disability levels and characteristics of the elderly population in China is of significant importance for responding effectively to the care service needs of this demographic.Methods Based on multi-wave data （2011-2023） from three nationally representative aging-related surveys CLHLS， CHARLS and CALSS， this study assessed， compared， and predicted the disability levels and characteristics of China's elderly population.Results Direct estimates from existing survey data showed low reliability. Integrated multi-source projections indicate that the disability rate among China's population aged 65 and older will follow a phased upward trend， ranging approximately between 12.27% and 15.05% from 2025 to 2050， with the disabled elderly population growing continuously from 25.9 million to 58.64 million. Bathing， toileting， and dressing were the three activities with the highest disability rates. Discussion and Suggestions： Future efforts should focus on improving the construction of an elderly capacity assessment system and addressing the shortage of high-quality disability data. Research should emphasize the evaluation process of item-specific disability among older adults. It is essential to grasp the phased characteristics of changes in disability levels and identify critical windows of opportunity for response. Based on the item-specific disability characteristics of older adults， the focus of elderly care services， facilities， and product supply should be accurately targeted. |
| Key words:Older adults ADL Disability Sampling survey |
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