| 引用本文：杨华磊,曹顺子,易鑫仪,等.渐进式延迟退休对职工医保统筹基金可持续与财政责任的影响基于弹性退休年龄选择区间的模拟研究[J].中国卫生政策研究,2025,18(6):1-8 |
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| 渐进式延迟退休对职工医保统筹基金可持续与财政责任的影响基于弹性退休年龄选择区间的模拟研究 |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-17 修订日期：2025-06-08 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 杨华磊，曹顺子，易鑫仪，唐丽丽 |
| 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院 湖北武汉 430073 |
| 摘要:本文以2024年9月13日公布的《国务院关于渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的办法》中关于渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的方案为切入点，构建精算模型，研究此方案对职工医保统筹基金可持续性和财政责任的影响，并提出政策建议。研究发现：不考虑延退政策，职工医保统筹基金于2043年开始穿底，测算期内总财政责任为172 613.80亿元；若均按政策规定退休，统筹基金开始出现穿底的节点推迟4年，总财政责任降低46.97%；进一步考虑职工弹性延迟退休对统筹基金的影响，发现不同的延退意愿情形相较于均按政策规定退休对基金可持续性和财政责任总体影响较小。结论 渐进式延迟退休年龄方案的实施有利于促进职工医保统筹基金可持续，减轻财政责任，但基金长期仍面临不可持续风险。 |
| 关键词:职工医疗保险 统筹基金 延迟退休 财政责任 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地武汉大学社会保障研究中心课题（22JJD630013） |
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| The effect of delayed retirement on the sustainability of the employees′ medical insurance pooling fund and fiscal responsibility： A simulation study based on flexible retirement age selection interval |
| YANG Hua-lei, CAO Shun-zi, YI Xin-yi, TANG Li-li |
| School of Public Administration， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law， Wuhan Hubei 430073， China |
| Abstract:This article takes as its starting point the gradual postponement of the statutory retirement age outlined in the "State Council's Measures on Gradually Delaying the Legal Retirement Age，" issued on September 13， 2024. An actuarial model is constructed to evaluate the effect of this policy on the sustainability of the employees' medical insurance pooling fund and associated fiscal responsibility. Based on these findings， relevant policy recommendations are proposed. The results indicate that， in the absence of a retirement delay policy， the employees' medical insurance pooling fund will be depleted by 2043， with total fiscal responsibility amounting to CNY 17 261.38 billion over the projection period. If all individuals retire in accordance with the stipulated policy， the depletion of the fund is delayed by four years， and overall fiscal responsibility decreases by 46.97%. Further analysis incorporating flexible retirement choices reveals that variations in individual willingness to delay retirement have relatively minor effects on both fund sustainability and fiscal responsibility compared to full compliance with the policy.Conclusion While the implementation of the gradual retirement age extension policy contributes to enhancing the sustainability of the employees' medical insurance pooling fund and alleviating fiscal responsibility， long-term financial viability remains at risk. |
| Key words:Employees' medical insurance Pooling fund Delayed retirement Fiscal responsibility |
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