| 引用本文：杨菊华.“单独二孩”的政策影响——一个多层次的理论分析[J].中国卫生政策研究,2014,7(9):33-38 |
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| “单独二孩”的政策影响——一个多层次的理论分析 |
| 投稿时间：2014-06-07 修订日期：2014-08-07 PDF全文浏览 HTML全文浏览 |
| 杨菊华 |
| 中国人民大学人口学系 北京 100872 |
| 摘要:随着“单独二孩”政策的逐步落地，该政策的潜在影响愈发引起社会关注。本文从宏观、家庭和个体三个层面，从人口、经济、社会多个角度，对“单独二孩”政策的影响进行初步分析，认为需要公正客观地看待这一政策，也要辨识政策给不同层面可能带来的差异化影响及其程度。在宏观层面，这一政策表明了中国政府遵守承诺、关注民生的一种态度和立场；但政策调整的家庭意义远超过宏观层面的人口和经济影响，带来1+1>2的效果。同时，这一政策还将“生”或“不生”、“要升职”或是“要生孩”的两难抉择摆在符合条件的女性面前，从而对后续生命历程带来一连串的影响；对孩子而言，这一政策有助于减缓他们背负的心理压力，形成健康的人格特征。 |
| 关键词:“单独二孩”政策 宏观作用 家庭影响 个体影响 |
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| Effects of selective two-child policy： A multi-level theoretical analysis |
| YANG Ju-hua |
| Department of Population Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China |
| Abstract:With the implementation of the selective two-child policy (if one side of the partners is a single child, the couple is allowed to have a second child) across provinces, the consequences of the new policy have drawn a great deal of attention from the community. This paper attempts to interpret policy effects from macro, household, and individual perspectives. It is argued that the macro effects on population and the size of labor pool or its increase is trivial. At the household level, however, the policy may yield effect much larger than 1+1=2. Similarly, for individual women, this policy may render them to face a dilemma: giving birth to another child or giving it up to achieve social mobility in the labor market. Although childbirth is a period event, it may, like domino, cause a series of events in the later life. Nevertheless, the consequences of the new policy for children are largely positive by alleviating their psychological and practical burden, and facilitating the formation of a healthy personality. |
| Key words:Selective two-child policy Macro-level consequences Household effects Individual effects |
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